Drivers of Agricultural Growth in British India (with Vigyan Ratnoo). Revise and Resubmit, European Review of Economic History.
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​This paper investigates the determinants of agricultural growth across colonial India. We use new data on canal irrigation and cropping patterns at the district-level and show that canals had a significant effect on agricultural incomes. Canal-fed districts saw crop upgrading and declining output sensitivity to weather volatility. The persistent policy preference for expanding railway access over canal construction led to small irrigation investments which constrained agricultural growth. We suggest that railway access eased demand-side constraints and spurred agricultural growth in some parts though market access without irrigation as a supply-side intervention constrained growth in large parts of British India.
Indian Equities over the Long-run (with David Chambers, Elias Ohneberg, Luisa Bicalho-Ritzkat). Submitted​
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Based on listed Indian company data starting in 1909, we find no increase in overall stock market importance until the 1980s. We estimate a new annual series of Indian equity returns over 1900 to 1959. Equities generated a positive real return and risk premium over the risk-free asset. Viewed over the very long-run, the unprecedented market rerating led to a surge in equity performance after 1991 following liberalization. An investor able to access listed Indian equities in London as well as Bombay in the colonial period would have seen similar performance and have benefitted from investing in both markets.
Adaptation of Rural Societies to Disaster: Evidence from Colonial Java (with Pim de Zwart)
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This paper investigates how and under what conditions farmers adapted to extreme weather events in tropical rainfed agriculture. We use new district-level data and a difference-in-difference estimator to investigate the effects of the 1901-03 drought on irrigation investments and crop production strategies across Java. Our results show that regions most exposed to the drought saw higher investments in irrigation, growth in cropland and increase in the cultivation of drought-resistant crops. Drought had heterogenous effects on adaptation depending on market access and institutional conditions. Farmers did not adapt in regions with communal rights or high tax burdens.
The Long History of Child Stunting in India (with Eric Schneider and Juliana Jaramillo Echeverri)​
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India has one of the highest child stunting rates in the world. Existing literature has offered explanations for these high rates at the country-level or through the use of granular data in the modern-day. There has been little work to show regional variation in stunting rates over time. Using new data at the state-level between 1950 and 2020, this paper fills this gap. It shows that while stunting rates were similar across regions in 1950, rates declined substantially for some states after 1970 while seeing only incremental change in other states till the 1990s. The paper situates these results against institutional changes in health and sanitation over time. More to follow.
Railways and Health in Colonial India (with Daniel Gallardo-Albarrán and Jordi Caum Julio)
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Does public investment in transport infrastructure improve economic outcomes? British India housed one of the world’s largest railway networks, and has been the subject of much discussion on the effects of growth in railway access on price convergence, agricultural income, urbanisation, and literacy rates. This project investigates the puzzle of transport and health by exploiting novel, municipal-level data on diseases, mortality rates and railway connectivity. On the one hand, market access and higher incomes could improve nutrition intake and reduce mortality rates. On the other hand, railway connectivity could increase population density, mobility, and the transmission rate of diseases. More to follow.
Climate, Risk and Institutional Change in South Asia, 1850-1950
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This paper conceptualizes a new framework to explain why climate affected institutional change and economic development in colonial India. It designs three climate-institution pillars: risk and individual adaptation, risk and collective action, as well as risk and public goods. The paper uses this framework to analyse regional variations in climate vulnerability and resilience, and proposes this framework as a key driver of inequality in a major tropical economy. More to follow.
Uncertainty and Cooperation in Colonial India (with Mattia Bertazzini)
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We use the expansion of cooperatives across rural India to investigate the conditions for risk-sharing. We are constructing a district-level dataset of participation in, and performance of, cooperatives in British-ruled India. The paper analyses changes in these indicators against shocks to the rural economy. More to follow.
Voter Preferences on the eve of Democracy: India in 1937 (with Auke Rijpma)
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Interwar India witnessed the largest recorded collective action episodes by group size across global history. This paper asks: Why did Indians mass mobilise? Existing literature focuses on shocks as triggers of mobilisation. We construct new demographic and public investments datasets to explore the long-term, underlying determinants of mass mobilization in a region on the verge of self-government. We investigate predictors of electoral performance for the Indian National Congress in 1937 – the largest vehicle for mass mobilization. Our results show that voter preferences were shaped by religion, urbanization and irrigation investments. Our findings corroborate works which highlight income and fear of underrepresentation as major determinants of participation in emerging democracies and works by historians who emphasise the strong relationship between decolonization and identity-based conflict in India.